The Texas Senate race in 2026 is one of the closest and most closely watched contests in the United States. CONFIRMED: Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are the major-party nominees for the seat held by Republican John Cornyn, and voters will decide the race on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. REPORTED: recent October polls mostly show Talarico ahead by a small margin, but two of the most cited surveys disagree about whether that lead is inside or outside the margin of error, and at least two other recent polls show a tie or Paxton ahead. No poll is a result, and this article does not predict a winner.
The race matters beyond Texas because it is an open seat — there is no incumbent running — and because Democrats have not won a Senate election in Texas since 1988, according to the election history summarised in recent coverage. A Democratic win would be a major break with that pattern. The winner will serve a six-year term in the United States Senate, voting on federal laws, the federal budget, and confirmations of federal judges and cabinet officials.
This explainer sets out who the candidates are, what the recent polls show — poll by poll, with dates, sample sizes and margins of error — why similar-looking polls can point in different directions, and the dates for early voting and Election Day.
Who is running, and why the seat is open
Three candidates are printed on the general-election ballot: Republican Ken Paxton, Democrat James Talarico, and Libertarian Ted Brown. Four independent write-in candidates have also been certified, but their names are not printed on the ballot.
Ken Paxton has been Texas attorney general since 2015. His campaign has emphasised working with President Donald Trump, cutting taxes, border security and immigration enforcement, and limiting federal power. He won the Republican nomination by defeating four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff on 26 May 2026, taking 63.8% of the vote to Cornyn’s 36.2%, after no candidate won a majority in the 3 March primary. President Trump endorsed Paxton a week before the runoff vote. Cornyn became the first incumbent senator from Texas to lose renomination since Democrat Ralph Yarborough in 1970.
Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 over allegations involving abuse of office and was subsequently acquitted by the Texas Senate. That history is part of the campaign debate, but it is not, on its own, a measure of how voters will decide this race.
James Talarico has been a Texas state representative since 2019 — first elected in a special election in 2018 — and is a former middle-school teacher. He won the Democratic primary on 3 March 2026 with 52.4% of the vote, ahead of Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. His campaign has emphasised affordability, public education, health care costs, government ethics and reducing the influence of large donors, including proposals to ban super PACs and corporate PACs and to end partisan gerrymandering.
Ted Brown, the Libertarian candidate, is a retired insurance adjuster from Austin. Polling has generally put his support in low single figures, but in a race this close, even a small share for a third candidate matters to the arithmetic — a point the Emerson pollster made explicitly, as set out below.
The polls: what each survey found
The table below lists the most cited October polls. Every figure is attributed to the pollster or outlet that reported it. Dates are fieldwork dates where those were reported. “LV” means likely voters.
| Pollster | Fieldwork dates | Sample | Margin of error | Talarico | Paxton | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College Polling / Nexstar Media | 17–19 Oct | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 points | 48% | 46% | Talarico +2 |
| Cook Political Report battleground poll | 9–13 Oct | 934 LV | ±3.2 points | 49% | 44% | Talarico +5 |
| Fox News | 15–19 Oct | 1,398 LV | ±2.5 points | 49% | 49% | Tie |
| University of Houston, Hobby School of Public Affairs | 10–14 Oct | 2,000 LV | ±2.2 points | 48% | 46% | Talarico +2 |
| Marist | 8–11 Oct | 1,196 | ±4.9 points | 47% | 45% | Talarico +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 20–21 Oct | 965 LV | ±3.0 points | 45% | 45% | Tie |
Sources for the table: the Emerson and Cook figures as reported by USA TODAY on 26–27 October 2026; the Fox News, Houston, Marist and Rasmussen figures as listed by RealClearPolling. The Houston figures were also reported by the El Paso Times.
Two further October surveys listed by RealClearPolling point in the same general direction but are not in the table above because their full methodology was not consistently reported across the sources checked for this article: a CBS News survey (8–16 October) showing Talarico ahead 51% to 49%, and a Univision/YouGov survey (13–21 October) showing Talarico ahead 50% to 45%. An InsiderAdvantage survey (13–14 October) was the only October poll in the RealClearPolling listing showing Paxton ahead, by 49% to 48%.
The RealClearPolling average of the polls it lists, covering 8–21 October, put Talarico at 48.5% and Paxton at 46.7% — a lead of 1.8 points. An average is an aggregator’s calculation, not a poll, and it changes as new polls are added.
Why Emerson and Cook disagree — and why both can be right
The most discussed disagreement is between the two polls published within a day of each other in late October. USA TODAY’s comparison put it plainly: the Emerson poll showed a 2-point Talarico lead within its 3.1-point margin of error, while the Cook poll showed a 5-point Talarico lead outside its 3.2-point margin of error.
That difference does not mean one poll is wrong and the other is right. It means the two surveys, conducted on different dates, with different samples and different methods, produced different estimates of the same close race.
The margin of error is the key to reading any of these numbers. A margin of error of ±3.1 points means that, if the poll’s methods worked as intended, the true level of support would usually fall within about 3.1 points either side of the reported figure. When a lead is smaller than the margin of error, the poll cannot, on its own, establish that the candidate is actually ahead — the result is best described as a statistical tie, even if one name is numerically in front. That is how USA TODAY described the Emerson result.
When a lead is larger than the margin of error, as in the Cook poll, the survey provides stronger evidence that the leading candidate is ahead among the population sampled — but it still does not prove the election result. Polls can miss for reasons the margin of error does not capture: the wrong mix of voters may answer, likely-voter models may misjudge who will actually vote, and voters may change their minds in the final days. The Cook poll’s fieldwork also ended earlier (9–13 October) than Emerson’s (17–19 October), so the two surveys are snapshots of slightly different moments.
Emerson’s own analysis added a further wrinkle. In the Emerson survey, 1% of respondents backed Libertarian Ted Brown in the first question, rising to 3% when undecided voters were pressed on which way they leaned — at which point Talarico rose to 49% and Paxton to 48%. Emerson executive director Spencer Kimball said Talarico’s support had “slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%,” and argued that if support for the Libertarian candidate “melts” before Election Day, Paxton would likely gain, because those voters were primarily independents or Republicans; if it holds, Talarico benefits. That is an interpretation of the poll data, not a finding of the poll itself.
The Houston poll found Talarico ahead among most Democrats (98%) and among independents (60% to 32%), while Paxton held 88% of Republicans. It also found Talarico with higher favourability than Paxton: 47% favourable to 50% unfavourable for Talarico, against 41% favourable to 57% unfavourable for Paxton. Favourability is not the same as vote intention, but the gap helps explain why a race in a state that voted strongly Republican in the 2024 presidential election, by a margin of 13.6 points according to RealClearPolling’s listing, is competitive at all.
What could still move the race
First, turnout. Early voting is already under way, and the final balance between early voters and Election Day voters is not known until the votes are counted. Texas does not publish a party breakdown of early voters; any “party split” of the early vote that circulates online is a model or an estimate, not an official count.
Second, undecided voters. In the Houston poll, 3% were undecided. With leads of 0 to 5 points, a late break among undecided voters in either direction could decide the race, and polls taken before the final weekend cannot capture that break.
Third, campaigning in the final days. President Trump campaigned for Paxton in Texas on 27 October, including a rally in Lubbock, while Talarico campaigned separately in the state the same day. High-profile endorsements and rallies can energise supporters, but their effect on the final result cannot be measured until the votes are counted.
Forecasters’ ratings reflect the uncertainty: Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections all rate the race a toss-up, according to the summary published in late October. A toss-up rating means either candidate could win — it is not a prediction.
Dates, voting and what happens next
The Texas Secretary of State has confirmed the key dates. The deadline to register to vote was Monday, 5 October 2026. Early voting runs from Monday, 19 October through Friday, 30 October 2026. Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. During early voting, Texans may cast a ballot at any early-voting polling location in their county of registration, although hours and locations vary by county. A photo ID is required when voting in person. Official information is available at VoteTexas.gov.
On election night, results will be reported county by county, and close races may not be called immediately. Early-voting totals are typically reported first in Texas, followed by Election Day results, and the balance between the two can make a race look different at different points in the evening. That is normal, and it is not evidence of a problem with the count. This page will be updated on the same URL with the result when it is known. For national context, see the 2026 midterm elections explainer, the national polling picture, and fuel prices and household budgets.
Frequently asked questions
Who is leading in the Texas Senate race polls?
Most recent October polls show James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton by 0 to 5 points, but several results are within the margin of error and are best described as statistical ties. The RealClearPolling average on 21 October put Talarico ahead by 1.8 points. No poll is a result.
What did the Emerson and Cook polls find?
Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media (17–19 October, 1,000 likely voters, ±3.1 points) found Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%. The Cook Political Report battleground poll (9–13 October, 934 likely voters, ±3.2 points) found Talarico 49%, Paxton 44%. The difference is that the Emerson lead is inside its margin of error and the Cook lead is outside it.
When is the Texas Senate election, and when is early voting?
Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Early voting runs 19–30 October 2026. The voter registration deadline was 5 October 2026.
Who are the candidates in the Texas Senate race?
Republican Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general; Democrat James Talarico, a Texas state representative; and Libertarian Ted Brown. The seat is open because incumbent Senator John Cornyn lost the Republican primary runoff to Paxton in May 2026.
Updated: 28 October 2026. This explainer will be updated on the same URL on election night. For your own registration, deadlines and polling place, check VoteTexas.gov.